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Global oil consumption has shifted, with demand now peaking in the third quarter instead of the traditional fourth, signalling a structural change reshaping markets during the summer months. Analysts point to stronger consumption from Asia—particularly China and India—alongside diminished heating fuel use in advanced economies as key drivers behind this trend, which carries significant implications for trading patterns, strategic reserves and pricing dynamics.

Industry data show that consumption of heating oil and kerosene in wealthy nations has declined steadily. In the US, fewer households rely on refined petroleum for heating—dropping from 17 % in 1990 to just 9 % today—while Europe has seen even steeper falls. Conversely, jet fuel use during Northern Hemisphere summers has grown, especially as holiday travel resumes. This has pushed demand peaks into July–September, reversing a long-standing seasonal rhythm.

Fuel consumption patterns in emerging economies present a stark contrast. Many countries, including those closer to the equator, rely on oil year-round for industrial power, electricity generation, and water desalination. Saudi Arabia, for instance, burned over 800,000 barrels per day of crude in just one summer to power air conditioning—a volume comparable to Belgium’s entire daily petroleum demand.

Climate change compounds the shift. Milder winters reduce heating demand, while hotter summers elevate energy needs for cooling and travel. In 2025 so far, global oil consumption in the third quarter is projected to exceed fourth-quarter levels by approximately 500,000 barrels per day—the fifth recorded year this has happened since 1991.

This transformation carries consequences for market tightness and pricing. Although OPEC+ and rising non‑OPEC output have attempted to balance supply, physical markets appear increasingly tight during summer months. In mid-July, Brent crude hovered in the mid‑US$60s, reflecting supply constraints despite softening from spring lows. Speculative traders, noting robust seasonal demand, have also increased their net long positions in Brent and gasoil contracts.

Asia’s role has been pivotal. China ramped refinery runs to over 80 % of capacity in June—the highest levels in five years—as stockpiling alongside consumption drove strong throughput. Meanwhile, Asia’s crude imports rose by around 510,000 bpd in the first half of 2025, underscoring the region’s impact. Despite cautious forecasts from the IEA and OPEC—projecting crude demand growth of 700,000 bpd and 1.29 million bpd respectively—actual refinery intake and imports suggest potential underestimation.

India’s fuel consumption trends provide further insights. June data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell show fuel demand was 20.31 million tonnes—down 4.7 % from May but up 1.9 % year-on-year—reflecting monsoon-related dips typical through August and September. Diesel usage, especially linked to industry and logistics, is a key part of India’s expanding consumption profile.

OPEC+ has responded to these dynamics. In August, the alliance approved production increases of roughly 548,000 bpd aiming to satisfy peak Q3 demand. Simultaneously, US shale output remains robust; American producers reported nearly 13.5 million bpd in April, although well completion rates have slowed, reflecting the dependency on prices.

Nevertheless, the market outlook grows more uncertain as it heads into fourth quarter. The EIA forecasts OECD inventories will build to 62 days’ worth of supply in the second half of 2025—rising further to 66 days by end-2026—signalling a potential surplus as summer demand wanes. EIA projections for 2026 also expect US production to decline, with WTI prices retreating toward US$53 per barrel.

Pricing reflects this shift. Oil markets have shown summer tightness in 2025, but expectations for a Q4 surplus weigh on medium-term prices. The IEA forecasts refinery throughput will drop from a projected August peak of 85.4 million bpd to about 81.7 million bpd by October, implying weaker demand later in the year.

The shift in seasonality thus becomes a critical market pivot. Traders, refiners and producers must recalibrate strategies around production schedules, storage cycles and investment decisions. Q3 now demands heightened vigilance—from physical balancing to hedging strategies—while Q4 may require reassessment of storage utilisation and pricing risk.

Titan Company has struck a deal to acquire a 67% stake in Dubai-headquartered luxury jeweller Damas from Qatar-based Mannai Corporation in a transaction valued at 1.04 billion dirhams, or approximately $283.2 million. The move is poised to significantly strengthen Titan’s footprint in the Gulf region, positioning the Tata Group company among the largest subcontinent-origin jewellery players operating in the Middle East.

The acquisition agreement, announced on Monday, marks a pivotal expansion for Titan beyond its current presence in the UAE, where it has operated under the Tanishq brand since October 2020. The transaction is expected to close by 31 January 2026, subject to regulatory approvals and customary closing conditions. Titan will also retain an option to purchase the remaining 33% equity in Damas after 31 December 2029, effectively laying the groundwork for full ownership over time.

The deal will give Titan direct access to Damas’ well-established network of 146 outlets across the six Gulf Cooperation Council nations — United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, and Bahrain. With only seven Titan-operated Tanishq stores currently open in the region, the acquisition presents a strategic leap in scale, market share, and regional brand visibility for the Bengaluru-based jeweller.

Damas, founded in 1907, is one of the most recognisable names in the Middle East’s luxury jewellery market. It has developed a reputation for catering to the region’s taste for high-end gold and diamond jewellery, and is known for its broad in-house product range and partnerships with international luxury brands. Mannai Corporation, which has owned Damas since 2012, has been looking to streamline its portfolio, prompting the divestment.

For Titan, the acquisition offers both a fast-track into the premium Gulf retail market and an opportunity to accelerate synergies across procurement, branding, and customer experience. The company is expected to retain Damas’ brand identity and existing management structure, allowing the Dubai-based business to continue leveraging its established reputation while benefitting from Titan’s supply chain and operational expertise.

The Middle East has been a target market for Titan’s international ambitions, driven by the strong presence of the South Asian diaspora and a deep-rooted cultural affinity for gold. The GCC region’s jewellery market is estimated to be worth over $10 billion, with gold accounting for a large share of consumer demand. Analysts view Titan’s acquisition of Damas as a strategically sound move in an environment where cross-border consolidation is becoming increasingly common in luxury retail.

Titan has grown to become one of the most dominant jewellery retailers in South Asia through its flagship brand Tanishq, which is positioned as an accessible luxury label offering a blend of traditional and contemporary designs. The company also operates sub-brands such as Mia and Zoya, each catering to specific consumer segments. Over the past decade, Titan has expanded into new domestic categories and entered select global markets, but the Damas deal marks its most ambitious international push yet.

The acquisition is being viewed by market observers as a significant play within the broader Tata Group strategy of boosting global brand equity across consumer-facing businesses. Following the group’s international expansions in hospitality, automotive, and technology, Titan’s move consolidates Tata’s multi-sectoral presence in the Gulf and taps into a region with rising demand for premium lifestyle offerings.

Financial analysts have underscored the deal’s strategic value, citing Damas’ established customer base and premium positioning, which could drive faster break-even timelines than greenfield expansion. Furthermore, the GCC’s favourable demographic trends and consistent gold demand have added to investor optimism around the deal’s long-term prospects.

Despite geopolitical uncertainty and fluctuations in gold prices, jewellery retail in the Gulf continues to enjoy high volumes due to cultural norms and steady tourist inflows, especially in the UAE. Titan’s increased footprint through Damas will place it in a better position to cater not just to residents but also international shoppers across the region’s major commercial and tourist hubs.

Titan has confirmed that the acquisition will be funded through internal accruals and debt, with no equity dilution expected in the near term. The company’s board has approved the investment, and the transaction is aligned with its long-term capital allocation strategy.

Executives at Titan have expressed confidence in Damas’ future growth trajectory and have indicated that the company will invest further in marketing, store refurbishment, and digital initiatives to modernise the customer journey. Damas’ product portfolio, which includes bridal sets, heritage pieces, and limited-edition designs, will remain intact as Titan aims to preserve the local flavour while infusing global best practices.

Foreign institutional investor activity has slowed, but India’s equity market is gaining a new level of sophistication thanks to the rapid emergence of long‑short strategies among domestic analysts. With regulatory approval of the Specialised Investment Fund route and increasing recognition of sell‑side research, analysts in India are setting new standards, outperforming peers in major global markets.

At the centre of this shift are flagship long‑short funds, enabled by an April amendment that allowed mutual funds to engage in both long and short equity positions via the SIF framework. Industry leaders such as ICICI Prudential, SBI, Quant and ITI Mutual Funds are among the first to roll out these products. This structural innovation, viewed by asset managers as a game‑changer, allows strategic hedging and enhanced alpha generation in volatile conditions.

Jatinder Pal Singh, CEO of ITI Mutual Fund, identifies the move as a watershed moment: “We see a lot of potential in this category similar to what we have seen in alternative investment funds…”. Quantitative and hedge fund entrants—AlphaGrep, Abakkus and Carnelian—are also applying for SIF licences, signalling a rising tide of systematic strategies.

The surge in long-short offerings emerges against a backdrop of changing investor sentiment and derivative market structures. While proprietary traders and retail continue to dominate derivatives trading—accounting for 52.3% and 33.6% respectively—domestic institutional participation remains minimal at just 0.2%. The launch of these funds is expected to usher in broader institutional adoption, reducing reliance on speculative flows.

Simultaneously, foreign players are reassessing their exposure. Citigroup downgraded Indian equities to “neutral” citing stretched valuations and slower earnings growth. Bank of America has flagged valuation concerns as part of seven headwinds to near‑term market performance, though it remains bullish on India’s long‑run structural strengths. Morgan Stanley echoes this optimism, describing the market as undervalued and promising for patient investors.

At the nexus of these developments, sell‑side analysts play a pivotal role. Their long‑short models provide more nuanced insights, enabling differentiated strategies compared to conventional long‑only approaches. This evolution mirrors practices in advanced markets, where close analyst coverage is integral to informed decision‑making.

International observers are taking note. Carson Block, known for his critical research into Chinese markets, is considering launching a long‑short or long‑only fund in India, citing opportunities in corporate transparency and leveraging tax-friendly jurisdictions like GIFT City. His interest signals growing confidence in the depth and potential of India’s equity ecosystem.

The broader equities landscape reflects these shifts. Foreign institutional investors are ramping up bearish positions in derivatives, signalling caution amid valuation concerns and global uncertainties. Concurrently, new equity supply is expanding, with a surge in IPOs and share sales reflecting a 14% rise in benchmark indices over the preceding six months. Analysts warn that without strong institutional demand, this wave may trigger volatility.

Experts argue the timing could not be better for long‑short funds. As valuations plateau and geopolitical uncertainty remains — including Middle East tensions affecting crude prices — the ability to manage risk through hedging becomes decisive. Fund managers are betting that structured strategies will better manage these headwinds.

At the same time, India’s growing affluent class—from double‑digit income growth to rising equity allocation—adds tailwinds. Wealth managers like 360 One are expanding advisory services amid rising assets under management, reflecting the country’s broader push toward financial sophistication. The development of long‑short funds aligns with these trends, offering differentiated solutions to high‑net‑worth investors seeking yield in uncertain markets.

Yet challenges remain. Institutional engagement in derivatives must scale meaningfully to support product viability. Regulators and market infrastructure will need to adapt, ensuring transparency and risk‑management frameworks keep pace. Moreover, investor education is critical; long‑short strategies are complex and require a clear understanding of leverage, margin risk and counterparty exposures.

Nonetheless, the direction is clear: Indian equity markets are transitioning from conventional long‑only investing to embrace multi‑directional strategies, leveraging deep local research and structural innovation. With the SIF framework opening doors for long‑short funds, analysts are stepping into roles once reserved for global peers. As Citi tones down enthusiasm and global investors tread cautiously, India’s analysts are sharpening tools that could redefine the domestic landscape—and perhaps export this model abroad.

Singapore’s Monetary Authority has designated S$1.1 billion to three fund managers as the inaugural allocation of its S$5 billion Equity Market Development Programme. The scheme aims to invigorate the bourse and broaden market participation, focusing on smaller- and mid-cap equities.

MAS selected Avanda Investment Management, JP Morgan Asset Management and Fullerton Fund Management for the initial round. Fullerton is part of state-owned Temasek. MAS indicated that the providers were chosen based on alignment with EQDP’s goals and their capacity to enhance local asset‑management expertise. Over 100 applications were received, with MAS rolling out five‑year funding commitments in phases.

The EQDP was unveiled in February in coordination with the Financial Sector Development Fund. Its mandate is to deploy capital through Singapore‑based managers investing primarily in domestic listed equities, with an emphasis on diversifying participation outside large‑cap stocks.

Following the EQDP announcement in August last year, the Straits Times Index has surged 23.9% to July 18, 2025, according to MAS. Authorities believe that targeted investment injection could foster deeper liquidity, narrower bid‑ask spreads and more vigorous price discovery across the exchange.

Analysts welcomed the move. One equity strategist said the programme signals a critical shift: “MAS is using its balance sheet to catalyse private capital into under‑represented segments.” Market observers noted that while headline liquidity in the FTSE Straits Times Index is healthy, mid‑ and small‑cap names typically suffer from thin volume and wide spreads, deterring institutional and retail interest.

JP Morgan’s involvement is expected to bring global asset‑management experience to bear on local strategies. Avanda, a Singapore‑grown emerging‑markets specialist, and Fullerton, with sovereign backing, strengthen confidence that domestic competence will benefit from the infusion of global best practice.

Details of each manager’s mandate have not been disclosed, but MAS emphasised that performance will be measured not only by capital deployment but also progress in building domestic expertise in portfolio construction, trading infrastructure and market‑making behaviours. These elements are crucial to achieving sustainable liquidity gains.

Experts point out that Singapore’s programme mirrors efforts overseas, such as Japan’s ETF purchases by its pension fund, but with a distinctive twist: the EQDP partners with private asset managers rather than buying equities directly. That design aims to stimulate skill transfer and innovation in execution capabilities.

Further co‑investment rounds are expected later this year, with MAS reviewing submissions in stages to expedite capital deployment. The S$5 billion envelope is expected to span several tranches, signalling long‑term commitment to market enhancement.

Since introducing a broad stock‑market review in August last year, MAS and its review group have identified several friction points, including limited participation by retail investors, dominance by large‑cap counters and constrained institutional activity in smaller names. EQDP is one among several initiatives aimed at remedying structural imbalances.

Regulatory adjustments are also on the cards, with potential reforms covering short‑selling rules, stock‑lending frameworks and promoting algorithmic market‑making. MAS has indicated a willingness to consult key stakeholders, including retail brokerages and the Singapore Exchange, to create complementary regulatory enablers.

Market participants have pointed out that EQDP funding alone may not be sufficient. A private fund‑operations specialist commented: “Capital without market infrastructure enhancements risks being parked rather than deployed actively.” MAS’ selection criteria emphasise capacity building—suggesting this concern has been taken into account.

Beyond boosting trading volumes, the manoeuvre may help Singapore position itself as a regional equity hub. By fostering advanced trading strategies, tighter spreads and higher turnover, the city‑state stands to attract more international fund flows. Simultaneously, support for domestic managers reinforces Singapore’s ambition to strengthen its plug‑and‑play asset‑management ecosystem.

MAS confirmed that progress and outcomes will be tracked and disclosed periodically. Selected managers will have to report on liquidity metrics, investment activity and capability transfer milestones. This level of oversight reflects a strategic approach to ensure that public‑private collaboration delivers measurable structural improvements.

Al‑Futtaim Retail has agreed to acquire a 49.95 per cent stake in Cenomi Retail from major shareholders for about SAR 2.52 billion, signalling a major strategic shift in Saudi Arabia’s retail sector. The agreement, unveiled through a statement on Tadawul today, July 20, 2025, also includes a conditional shareholder loan to boost Cenomi’s balance sheet.

Under the share purchase agreement signed on July 18, Al‑Futtaim would purchase approximately 57.33 million shares from the Alhokair family, Saudi FAS Holding and FAS Real Estate at SAR 44 per share. Completion hinges on regulatory clearance and execution of a parallel SAR 1.3 billion loan agreement aimed at shoring up working capital.

Al‑Futtaim, a UAE conglomerate with a broad portfolio spanning franchising, automotive, real estate and financial services, brings deep retail expertise and a strong track record with global brands. Its investment is expected to stabilise Cenomi’s liquidity, support operational continuity and bolster its capacity for expansion.

Cenomi Retail, part of Fawaz Abdulaziz Alhokair Co., has navigated a challenging turnaround. It holds the largest brand portfolio in Saudi Arabia, operating over 800 stores across eight countries and managing more than 85 international brands, including Zara under a long-term agreement with Inditex. The firm successfully launched a landmark Zara concept store in Riyadh in December 2024, integrating digital and physical retail channels.

Despite these strengths, Cenomi has suffered persistent financial strain. It reported a SAR 1.1 billion net loss in 2023 amid deteriorating margins, asset write-downs and weakening equity. Total assets collapsed by 36 per cent to SAR 4.6 billion by end‑2024, while shareholder equity turned negative – warning signs that triggered restructuring efforts in 2024.

In response, Cenomi embarked on an aggressive restructuring: disposing of non-core brands and outlets, offloading 16 franchises in early 2024, divesting five further brands with 121 stores to Abdullah Al Othaim Fashion Co. in October, and appointing Salim Fakhouri as CEO. The divestments, totalling SAR 2 billion, aimed to streamline operations around “champion” brands like Zara. By mid‑2024, losses had mounted to SAR 1.5 billion.

Earlier this month, Cenomi confirmed it was in talks to bring in a strategic investor for nearly half its capital, accompanied by a shareholder loan. Today’s announcement reveals that investor as Al‑Futtaim, although final terms on the loan are still under discussion.

The deal aligns with broader growth trends in Saudi Arabia’s retail sector, which is projected to expand at roughly 7.1 per cent CAGR through 2029. Economic diversification under Vision 2030, expanding consumer spending and rising tourism are driving omnichannel retail innovation. Cenomi’s launch of cenomi. com and its O2O model position it to capitalise on these trends, though profitability remains a concern.

Analysts have flagged Cenomi as a high-risk, high-reward prospect. With a forward P/E of around 14.3x and a weak operating margin, its distressed balance sheet raises concerns over equity dilution. However, sustained operational cash generation—SAR 1.3–1.4 billion annually—suggests underlying business viability.

Al‑Futtaim’s entry provides a critical capital injection that could stabilise Cenomi’s finances and underpin its digital expansion. Industry observers note that Majid Al Futtaim and Emaar have successfully executed omni-channel models in the region; Al‑Futtaim’s deep supply chain know-how and brand partnerships could replicate that success in Saudi markets.

Following deal closure, which remains subject to approvals, Al‑Futtaim will command nearly half of Cenomi’s share capital and will have extended a substantial shareholder loan. The injecting of both capital and expertise is expected to bolster Cenomi’s capability to restore profitability and reclaim market leadership.

A significant majority of sovereign wealth funds from the Middle East are poised to increase their investments in Chinese assets over the coming five years, according to the latest findings from Invesco’s Global Sovereign Asset Management Study. This shift places China at the forefront of strategic allocation decisions, reflecting growing confidence in its innovation-led sectors.

The study, conducted between January and March and covering funds and central banks managing a combined US$27 trillion, reveals that around 60% of Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds are planning to boost exposure to China. This places the region only behind Asia‑Pacific and Africa, where 88% and 80% of funds respectively intend to raise allocations. North American counterparts also show strong interest, with approximately 73% signalling intent to increase investment in China.

Funds across regions cited strong returns—identified by 71% of respondents—as a key motivator, alongside diversification goals cited by 63% and improved market access for foreigners mentioned by 45%. Chinese innovation sectors, including digital technology, software, advanced manufacturing, automation, and clean energy, are particularly attractive, with 89% indicating interest in digital tech and software, and 70% each for manufacturing and green energy.

Participants in the study included 141 senior investment professionals—chief investment officers, asset-class heads and portfolio strategists—drawn from 83 sovereign wealth funds and 58 central banks globally. The high participation rate lends weight to the findings: China is now ranked as a high or moderate priority for 59% of funds, a notable jump from the previous year.

Despite geopolitical tensions between Washington and Beijing, sovereign funds appear more focused on structural opportunities. North American allocations towards China are framed as strategic, long-term bets in innovation rather than reactive moves to policy friction. As one Invesco executive described, investors appear driven by fear of missing out on China’s strides in semiconductors, AI, EVs and renewable energy—“a strategic urgency they once directed toward Silicon Valley”.

A regional lens reveals the Middle Eastern shift as part of a larger recalibration. Sovereign funds in the Gulf and from oil-rich neighbours are increasingly turning to China not just for commodity trades but for diversified returns and access to high-growth sectors. One Middle Eastern fund commented that the credit spectrum in fixed income markets currently offers more attractive risk-adjusted returns than public equities, underlining a broader repositioning.

Globally, sovereign investors are embracing active management, allocating more to fixed income and private credit as markets normalise post ultra-low interest rate era. Thirty‑nine per cent of funds plan to increase fixed income exposure, underscoring a pivot towards liquidity management and resilience. Private credit usage has expanded sharply, from 30% to 44% in direct or co-investments, reflecting growing appetite for yield and portfolio diversification.

Central banks are also reshaping strategy, with 64% planning to grow reserve holdings and 53% aiming to diversify further within two years. Gold remains a popular hedge: almost half intend to expand allocations over the next three years. The dominance of the US dollar persists, with 78% expecting no credible alternative supply within the next two decades.

A modest entrant in the digital asset space, sovereign wealth funds are gradually increasing exposure to digital currencies. Direct allocations rose to 11% from 7% in 2022, most pronounced in the Middle East, Asia‑Pacific and North America. Stablecoins, viewed as more accessible than traditional crypto, are gaining attention among emerging market funds.

China remains a focal point for global sovereign investors seeking exposure to growth-critical sectors and structural diversification. The convergence of strong returns, market access improvements, and sectoral opportunities is driving Middle Eastern and other funds to recalibrate their portfolios. China has transitioned from an optional allocation into a central pillar of future-focused asset strategies, marking a calculated investment pivot amid an evolving global landscape.

Saudi Aramco is in advanced discussions with a consortium spearheaded by BlackRock to secure approximately $10 billion for infrastructure linked to its expansive Jafurah gas initiative. The financing structure echoes prior deals, with investors purchasing usage rights while Aramco retains operational control and ownership.

The proposed transaction centres on critical assets—specifically pipelines and a processing facility—essential to the $100 billion Jafurah project, the world’s largest shale gas development outside the United States. Aramco aims to lift gas output by 60 per cent by 2030 from 2021 levels.

This initiative represents another strategic approach by Gulf oil majors to diversify their revenue models amid volatile crude prices. The deal allows Aramco to tap private capital while offering investors stable tariff income backed by long‑term usage commitments.

In 2021, BlackRock and EIG invested in Aramco’s gas and oil pipeline subsidiaries through similar lease‑back transactions, collectively raising nearly $28 billion. Under those agreements, Aramco retained a 51 per cent stake in each entity and paid tariffs to investors for pipeline usage, a structure described by consultancy Qamar Energy as more akin to borrowing than a sale.

With this new deal, Aramco continues its disciplined approach to infrastructure financing. The Jafurah project itself is a linchpin of Saudi Arabia’s energy transition agenda, aligning with national objectives to bolster gas production and reduce reliance on oil exports.

While those familiar with the talks confirm the structure mirrors the 2021 transactions, the group declined to specify a timeline for finalisation. Both Aramco and BlackRock declined to comment.

Experts note that such arrangements enable Aramco to free up capital for diversification ventures while retaining strategic infrastructure oversight. “The pipeline deals were basically a securitisation,” said Robin Mills, chief executive of Qamar Energy, referencing the 2021 transactions.

Market analysts believe this deal could serve as a template for financing future segments of Jafurah, which is expected to reach production of 2 billion cubic feet per day by 2030.

Taken together with Aramco’s earlier asset sales—such as its consideration of offloading gas-fired power plants and port infrastructure—these moves reflect mounting government pressure to boost proceeds amid a fiscal deficit and fluctuating oil revenues.

Saudi Arabia’s reliance on oil revenues—which accounted for around 62 percent of state income in 2024—has prompted a series of asset realisations, bond issuances and structured financing to support large-scale domestic projects and broaden the economic base.

The Jafurah deal also highlights growing investor appetite for stable, long‑dated infrastructure revenue streams in the Gulf. With institutional players like BlackRock involved, these deals are gaining traction as a viable alternative to traditional equity or debt-financing routes. Analysts suggest more such partnerships could emerge as the kingdom scales up energy-reform initiatives, including clean energy and non-oil sectors.

As the deal progresses, stakeholders will monitor its structure, particularly in comparison with the 2021 models, and assess implications for Aramco’s capital allocation strategy. The outcome could influence both market perception of the firm and broader investment flows into Middle East energy infrastructure.