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The change in outlook has been swift. Until the latest tax measures, ITC had ranked among the most favoured large-cap stocks on domestic brokerage lists, supported by steady cash flows from cigarettes and growing contributions from fast-moving consumer goods, hotels and paperboards. That balance has been questioned after the government raised duties on tobacco products, squeezing margins in the company’s most profitable segment.

ITC hit by analyst downgrades after tax move has become a defining theme in market commentary as earnings models are recalibrated. Analysts who turned cautious point to limited scope for further price hikes in cigarettes without risking volume erosion, at a time when consumption growth has already been uneven.

Cigarettes contribute a majority of ITC’s operating profit despite accounting for a smaller share of revenue, making tax changes particularly sensitive. The latest duty increase, structured through a combination of higher specific excise and cess components, has raised the effective tax burden across key cigarette categories. Brokerages estimate that, unless offset by price increases or cost efficiencies, operating margins in the segment could compress by 150 to 250 basis points over the coming quarters.

Some analysts expect ITC to pass on part of the tax through selective price increases, a strategy the company has used in earlier cycles. However, several broker notes highlight a more competitive environment, with illicit trade and regional players limiting pricing power. Volume growth assumptions for the cigarette business have been trimmed, with some forecasts now factoring in flat to marginally negative growth.

The reassessment has translated into rating cuts from buy to hold or equivalent neutral stances. Target prices have also been lowered, reflecting reduced earnings visibility and a narrower valuation premium for the cigarette franchise. A few brokerages have flagged that ITC’s valuation multiple had already priced in regulatory stability, leaving little cushion for adverse policy surprises.

Not all analysts are bearish. A significant portion of coverage has retained positive recommendations, arguing that the market reaction may be overdone. Supporters note ITC’s strong balance sheet, consistent dividend payouts and diversified portfolio as buffers against near-term volatility. The company remains debt-free and continues to generate robust free cash flow, providing flexibility to absorb tax shocks.

Attention has also turned to ITC’s non-cigarette businesses, which management has been positioning as long-term growth drivers. The FMCG segment, covering packaged foods, personal care and agri-branded products, has delivered double-digit revenue growth in several quarters, albeit with thinner margins. Analysts broadly agree that sustained investment is required before this segment can materially offset any slowdown in cigarettes.

The hotels business, demerged earlier into a separate listed entity, has been another focal point. While the demerger unlocked value and allowed sharper capital allocation, it also removed a stable earnings contributor from ITC’s consolidated results. Some analysts argue that the timing has amplified the perceived impact of the tobacco tax, as investors now view ITC more squarely through the lens of its cigarette exposure and FMCG transition.

Market participants are also weighing the broader regulatory backdrop. Tobacco taxation remains a policy lever tied to public health objectives and revenue needs, creating an element of unpredictability. Analysts caution that while steep tax hikes may not be annual, periodic adjustments are likely, keeping long-term risk premiums elevated for cigarette makers.

ITC’s management has yet to signal any immediate strategic shift in response to the tax increase. Past commentary has emphasised disciplined pricing, supply chain efficiencies and portfolio premiumisation to protect margins. The company has also highlighted investments in agri-sourcing and digital distribution to strengthen competitiveness across categories.

For investors, the debate has narrowed to whether the stock’s recent underperformance adequately reflects these risks. Some analysts see value emerging if earnings downgrades stabilise and FMCG margins continue to improve. Others maintain that sentiment will remain cautious until clearer evidence emerges that cigarette profitability can be sustained without sacrificing volumes.

GLAS has carved out a niche as a specialist provider of services that support the lifecycle of debt instruments, from syndicated loans and direct lending to private credit and leveraged finance transactions. Founded in 2011 by Mia Drennan and Brian Carne, the firm oversees administration for a substantial portfolio of assets under management running into the hundreds of billions of dollars and employs over 450 staff across 16 offices worldwide. Drennan is expected to remain at the helm as chief executive, reflecting continuity in leadership amid the change in ownership.

The strategic rationale behind the investment reflects broader shifts in global credit markets. Demand for outsourced loan administration and trustee services has grown as lenders and borrowers navigate increasingly complex financing arrangements and regulatory requirements. Private credit, in particular, has expanded sharply, with non-bank lenders and institutional investors seeking specialist support for documentation, compliance and reporting functions that underpin large, bespoke transactions. GLAS’s suite of services has made it a go-to partner in this space, particularly for institutional clients negotiating intricate debt structures.

Financial terms of the deal disclosed by Oakley indicate its indirect contribution via Fund VI will be up to about £55 million, but wider valuations implied by market coverage suggest a total enterprise value near £1 billion. That figure aligns with expectations from advisers and reflects both GLAS’s established market position and the strategic value investors place on firms that facilitate the expanding private credit ecosystem. Oakley’s purchase follows a period of growth for GLAS under Levine Leichtman’s ownership, during which assets under administration reportedly rose from roughly $120 billion in 2021 to more than $750 billion today, driven by geographic expansion, technology investment and targeted acquisitions.

Oakley Capital’s profile has broadened in recent years as the firm has backed a variety of businesses across sectors including consumer brands, technology and business services. Its backing of GLAS reflects a deliberate push into specialised financial services where structural trends favour outsourced, technology-enhanced solutions. The involvement of La Caisse, a major institutional investor, underscores the appeal of GLAS’s business model to long-term capital allocators seeking exposure to the infrastructure of global credit markets.

Industry analysts have noted the appetite for loan agency services has been underpinned by the proliferation of private credit funds and a resurgence of syndicated lending activity following periods of market volatility. As banks and alternative lenders diversify their portfolios and jurisdictions tighten reporting standards, demand for independent administrators with global reach has grown. GLAS’s deep bench of expertise in handling complex transactions and its geographic footprint are seen as competitive advantages that could support accelerated growth under Oakley’s stewardship.

Executives from both sides have highlighted the strategic fit. Mia Drennan said the partnership with Oakley and La Caisse positions GLAS to expand its offerings and deepen client relationships, building on a track record of innovation in service delivery. Josh Kaufman, partner and head of Europe at Levine Leichtman, expressed pride in the firm’s role in GLAS’s development and confidence in its future trajectory under new ownership. Advisers on the transaction included Deutsche Bank and Robert W. Baird, working with GLAS and Levine Leichtman, reflecting the complexity and market interest in the deal.

The developments will be led by Manrre Developments, a joint venture between GFH and Palmon Group, a seasoned UAE-based industrial conglomerate with over 40 years of institutional experience. This partnership unites proven regional expertise across acquisition, planning and design, development, execution, and operational readiness to deliver exceptional, future-ready warehouses and logistics centres.

Harry Ip, Managing Director of Gaw Capital, said, “We are thrilled to enter UAE’s flourishing industrial and logistics market, supported by strong fundamentals, the surge in structural demand driven by government-led initiatives, and heightened global interest in the logistics and industrial asset class. Leveraging the expertise from GFH Partners, this partnership positions us as one of Asia’s leading forerunners in delivering prime industrial facilities in the UAE, providing investors with exposure to a fundamentally undersupplied market.”

Nael Mustafa, CEO of GFH Partners, commented, “GFH Partners brings on-the-ground specialists, experienced local operators, and a strong track record managing logistics and industrial assets across the GCC. This joint venture allows us to scale that regional expertise even further, capitalizing on the UAE’s robust industrial growth trajectory. Through this partnership with Gaw Capital, we are combining regional insight with global capability to unlock new opportunities in the UAE’s expanding industrial and logistics sector.”

The Platform is being launched at a time of strong macroeconomic momentum, supported by the UAE’s long-term development strategies including the Dubai Industrial Strategy 2030 and the Dubai 2040 Urban Master Plan. Majority of these initiatives are aimed at accelerating industrial diversification, attracting FDI, and expanding logistics infrastructure. The local government offers a list of pro-business regulatory and fiscal policies, including tax exemptions, customs duty exemption, simplified regulations in 40+ free zones, and relaxed foreign ownership limitation, to accelerate logistics demand and investment. Furthermore, the population of the UAE has experienced dramatic growth and is expected to reach 12.2 million by 2030, driven by the long-term residency incentives (e.g. Golden Visa), competitive tax regime, openings of prestigious school campuses for expatriate professional and family relocation.

Demand for logistics and industrial assets remains robust, supported by a persistent supply–demand imbalance. Dubai’s warehouse and logistics occupancy currently exceeds 97%, with rental rates increasing 33% year-on-year. The formation of the Platform will mark Gaw Capital’s first geographic footprint in the logistics sector in the UAE, demonstrating its global network and cross-border expertise in accessing industrial and logistics investments ahead of the curve.

Gaw Capital has established a robust logistics footprint across China, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and Australia, with investments in 39 projects totalling approximately 3.8 million sqm of GFA. As of Q3 2025, Gaw Capital manages over US$3.4 billion in assets under management in its global logistics portfolio.

Since 2014, the firm has acquired, developed, and managed a substantial portfolio of modern logistics facilities with over 3 million sqm of GFA across China, supported by a team of around 100 professionals through 4 investment vehicles. Leveraging its deep expertise, Gaw Capital has expanded into other APAC markets through strategic partnerships, acquiring high-quality assets in key metropolitan hubs. Recent investments include seven logistics assets in Greater Tokyo (nearly 250,000 sqm GFA), one in Seoul (over 75,000 sqm GFA), two in Vietnam (over 210,000 sqm GFA) and six urban industrial and logistics warehouses in Sydney (over 45,000 sqm GFA). The firm’s in-house teams and operating partners deliver value-added services across the logistics value chain, including development, construction, leasing, and property management.
Hashtag: #GawCapitalPartners #GFHPartners

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About Gaw Capital Partners

Based in Asia, Gaw Capital Partners is a multi-asset investment management firm focusing on real estate, growth equity, private credit and infrastructure markets globally.

Since its inception in 2005, the firm has raised seven commingled funds targeting Asia Pacific, alongside value-add /opportunistic funds in the U.S., a Pan-Asia Hospitality Fund, a European Hospitality Fund, a Growth Equity Fund and a Credit Fund. It also manages credit strategies and separate account direct investments globally.

Gaw Capital has consistently generated high yields by revitalizing underperforming assets, enhancing value through creative financing solutions and leveraging deep expertise in capital allocation.

Since 2005, the firm has managed US$35.8 billion in assets and raised US$24.4 billion in equity as of Q2 2025.

About GFH Partners Ltd.

GFH Partners Ltd. (“GFH Partners”) is the DIFC-based global asset management subsidiary of GFH Financial Group B.S.C. (“GFH”). Headquartered in Dubai International Financial Centre and regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, GFH Partners is dedicated to real estate investment and asset management across diverse markets. With assets under management exceeding US$7 billion and investments spanning the US, UK, and GCC. GFH Partners focuses on strategic partnerships and innovative real estate solutions, reinforcing its role as a leading player in global asset management.

Riyadh Zoo has positioned itself as a family-centred destination within Riyadh Season 2025, offering child-focused environments designed around safety, comfort and controlled engagement with wildlife, according to official details released at the start of the year. The attraction, one of the season’s designated zones, is being presented as a model for how large-scale entertainment events in the capital are adapting to the needs of families with young children.

The zoo’s layout has been organised to prioritise safe movement and visibility, with dedicated pathways that reduce congestion and limit close contact points. Low-height viewing areas have been built to allow children clear sightlines to animals without the need for lifting or crowding, a feature aimed at reducing accidents while improving the overall experience. These design choices form part of a broader emphasis on balancing entertainment with parental reassurance.

Family seating areas are distributed throughout the zone, providing spaces for rest and supervision while maintaining visual access to enclosures. Organisers say this approach allows families to remain engaged without feeling overwhelmed by noise or foot traffic, an issue that has challenged other high-density attractions during the season. The emphasis on controlled flow and defined activity zones reflects planning standards that have been applied across several Riyadh Season venues.

Riyadh Zoo’s children’s facilities include interactive learning areas intended to introduce younger visitors to animal behaviour and conservation in an age-appropriate format. Educational elements are integrated into play-based experiences, with staff trained to manage group sizes and maintain clear boundaries between visitors and animals. This structure is designed to minimise stress for both children and wildlife while encouraging curiosity and awareness.

Safety protocols extend beyond physical design. Organisers have highlighted strict operational standards, including routine checks of barriers, continuous monitoring of visitor movement and the presence of trained personnel in high-traffic areas. Emergency response procedures have been aligned with wider Riyadh Season safety frameworks, ensuring coordination with medical and security teams operating across the city’s entertainment zones.

The focus on child-friendly environments aligns with Riyadh Season’s stated objective of expanding family-oriented destinations as part of the capital’s cultural and leisure transformation. Over successive editions, the festival has broadened its appeal beyond concerts and sporting events to include attractions that cater to younger audiences, reflecting demographic demand and changing leisure habits within the Kingdom.

Urban planners and event management specialists note that such initiatives also serve a longer-term purpose. By embedding safety-first design principles into popular venues, organisers can set benchmarks for future projects, particularly those involving children. The Riyadh Zoo model demonstrates how entertainment infrastructure can be adapted to local expectations while meeting international standards for visitor welfare.

Riyadh Season 2025 has placed increased emphasis on organisation and crowd management following feedback from earlier editions, when high attendance at certain zones led to congestion. The zoo’s structured layout and controlled entry points are intended to mitigate those risks, offering a calmer environment compared with more high-energy attractions elsewhere in the season.

Parents visiting the zoo have highlighted the value of clearly marked routes and viewing points that allow children to engage independently within defined limits. This approach reduces reliance on physical barriers alone, instead combining design, supervision and education to create a safer setting. For organisers, the challenge has been to preserve a sense of exploration while maintaining order, particularly during peak attendance periods.

The zoo’s role within Riyadh Season also reflects broader investment in leisure infrastructure as part of national diversification efforts. Family-oriented attractions are increasingly viewed as essential to building a sustainable entertainment economy, encouraging repeat visits and longer dwell times while appealing to residents and visitors alike.

Plans to turn India into a major semiconductor manufacturing hub are moving from policy to execution, with four companies scheduled to begin chip production during 2026 and the government setting its sights on becoming one of the world’s leading producers by 2035. The transition marks a decisive phase for a country long dependent on imported chips but now seeking to embed itself in global electronics supply chains amid geopolitical realignments and rising demand for secure manufacturing bases.

The most advanced of the announced projects is the large-scale fabrication facility planned at Dholera in Gujarat, a joint venture between Tata Electronics and Taiwan’s Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation. The plant, cleared with government backing and financial incentives under the Semiconductor Mission, is designed to manufacture mature-node chips used in automobiles, power electronics, consumer devices and industrial equipment. Construction work has progressed through 2025, with commercial production targeted to start the following year, according to timelines shared with policymakers and industry partners.

Alongside the Dholera fab, three other facilities are slated to commence output in 2026, primarily in the assembly, testing, marking and packaging segment. Micron Technology’s ATMP plant at Sanand in Gujarat is expected to be the first major operational unit, focusing on memory products for global markets. Two domestic groups, Tata Electronics and Kaynes Semicon, are also developing advanced packaging facilities, while CG Power, in partnership with Japan’s Renesas Electronics and Thailand’s Stars Microelectronics, is setting up an outsourced semiconductor assembly and test unit in Gujarat. Together, these projects are intended to establish a foundational ecosystem rather than a single flagship plant.

Government officials argue that the emphasis on both fabrication and packaging reflects a deliberate strategy. While advanced-node fabs require decades of experience and heavy capital, mature-node manufacturing and packaging are seen as realistic entry points that align with India’s strengths in engineering talent, scale and cost efficiency. Officials involved in the programme say the objective is to capture value across the semiconductor chain while gradually building capabilities for more complex processes.

Public funding has played a central role. Under the incentive framework, the central government is offering support covering up to half the project cost for approved semiconductor and display manufacturing units, with additional incentives from host states. The total committed investment across approved projects runs into tens of billions of dollars, according to official estimates, making it one of the most capital-intensive industrial initiatives undertaken in the country.

Industry analysts note that the timing coincides with a global rethinking of chip supply chains. Disruptions during the pandemic years, coupled with trade and technology tensions, prompted governments and companies to seek diversified manufacturing locations. India’s pitch combines policy stability, a large domestic electronics market and strategic partnerships with established chipmakers. Executives at electronics firms say the presence of local chip production could shorten supply chains and reduce vulnerability to external shocks.

Challenges remain substantial. Semiconductor manufacturing demands ultra-reliable power, water and logistics, as well as a deep supplier base for chemicals, gases and equipment. Skills development is another constraint. While India produces large numbers of engineers, chip fabrication requires specialised expertise built through years of hands-on experience. To address this, training collaborations with overseas partners and academic institutions have been initiated, and several universities have launched semiconductor-focused programmes.

There is also scepticism about the 2035 ambition. Market researchers point out that becoming a “top” producer can be defined in different ways, whether by volume, value or technological sophistication. Countries such as Taiwan, South Korea and the United States dominate advanced-node manufacturing, while China has invested heavily across the value chain. India’s near-term projects focus on mature technologies, which serve vast markets but command lower margins. Supporters counter that demand for such chips is set to remain strong due to electric vehicles, renewable energy systems and industrial automation.

Global equity funds attracted sizeable inflows in the final week of 2025, reflecting sustained investor confidence as artificial intelligence-driven gains and expectations of resilient corporate earnings buoyed risk appetite across major markets. Fund flow data compiled from multiple tracking agencies showed investors adding billions of dollars to equity-focused vehicles, extending a trend that had strengthened through the closing quarter of the year.

The late-year surge followed a period of steady gains in global stock indices, underpinned by enthusiasm around productivity improvements linked to AI adoption and comparatively stable macroeconomic conditions in several advanced economies. Technology-heavy markets led the inflows, with North America and parts of Asia drawing particular interest, while Europe also registered net additions after earlier bouts of volatility tied to growth concerns.

Market participants pointed to a recalibration of expectations around monetary policy as another driver. With major central banks signalling that the peak of the tightening cycle had passed, investors appeared more willing to increase exposure to equities, especially companies positioned to benefit from automation, data analytics and cloud computing. Portfolio managers noted that the narrative around AI had broadened beyond a narrow group of mega-cap technology firms, supporting inflows into diversified equity funds rather than only thematic products.

Corporate earnings guidance also played a role in shaping sentiment. As the reporting season unfolded, many large firms indicated that margins were holding up better than feared, aided by cost discipline and selective price increases. While earnings growth varied by sector, analysts highlighted that consensus forecasts for the coming quarters stabilised after repeated downgrades earlier in the year, giving investors greater confidence to deploy capital before year-end.

Flows into emerging market equity funds showed a more nuanced picture. Some regions benefited from improving external balances and easing inflation pressures, which encouraged selective inflows, while others continued to see outflows amid currency volatility and geopolitical uncertainty. Asset managers said global investors remained discriminating, favouring markets with credible policy frameworks and exposure to global technology supply chains.

Bond funds, by contrast, recorded more modest movements during the same period, with some investors reallocating from fixed income to equities as yields plateaued. Mixed flows into money market funds suggested that cash levels remained elevated, reflecting a degree of caution even as equity allocations rose. This balance underscored what strategists described as a “measured optimism” rather than an unqualified risk-on shift.

Industry data indicated that passive equity funds and exchange-traded funds accounted for a significant share of the inflows, highlighting the continued appeal of low-cost vehicles tracking broad indices. Active equity funds also saw net subscriptions, particularly those with mandates focused on innovation, healthcare and industrial automation, sectors viewed as long-term beneficiaries of technological change.

Regional allocation patterns revealed that United States-focused funds captured the largest share of new money, supported by strong performance in technology and communication services stocks. Asia-Pacific equity funds followed, aided by signs of recovery in key economies and policy measures aimed at supporting growth. European equity funds experienced steadier, though smaller, inflows as investors weighed valuation appeal against ongoing structural challenges.

Market analysts cautioned that the momentum seen at the end of the year did not eliminate underlying risks. Valuations in some AI-linked stocks were described as demanding, leaving markets vulnerable to corrections if earnings failed to meet elevated expectations. Geopolitical tensions, trade policy uncertainty and uneven global growth were also cited as factors that could test investor confidence in the months ahead.

By Prabhat Patnaik The BJP-led government has just got parliament to pass a legislation permitting up to 100 percent foreign equity-ownership in India’s insurance sector. This, the Prime Minister has announced, marks the beginning of a major “reform” in India’s financial sector, towards presumably much greater private, including foreign, ownership of financial institutions. This would […]

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