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By K Raveendran Oil prices fell to their lowest level in five months on Tuesday, continuing a slide that has gathered pace over the past several weeks. The benchmark Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude futures have both dipped significantly, erasing much of the year’s earlier gains. In stark contrast, gold has soared to an […]

The article Gold Feeds On Oil’s Misfortune; One Hits The Roof, The Other Down In The Dumps appeared first on Latest India news, analysis and reports on Newspack by India Press Agency).

Traders on the U. S. prediction market Kalshi are assigning a 55 percent chance that Bitcoin will exceed $130,000 by the end of 2025, with probabilities of 34 percent for surpassing $140,000 and 24 percent for topping $150,000. That places the market’s expected annual high at roughly $132,000.

Those figures reflect a steadily intensifying optimism about Bitcoin’s trajectory, drawing attention from institutional and retail participants alike. Kalshi’s “How high will Bitcoin get this year?” market is driving price discovery around extreme outcomes for the cryptocurrency.

That optimism today sits alongside growing institutional flows into related assets. Bitcoin spot ETF issuers have been attracting multi-billion dollar inflows across several jurisdictions; analysts view that as a cornerstone of structural demand, tightening supply in spot markets. At the same time, the derivatives market is registering sharply skewed positioning in favour of upside moves, especially in out-of-the-money call options.

Crypto research platforms note that exchange reserves of Bitcoin are at multi-year lows, meaning a smaller buffer for large sell orders to exert downward pressure. Some large holders are moving coins to cold storage or long-term custody, reducing the circulating float further. That dynamic can magnify even moderate inflows into a pronounced price rise.

Macroeconomic factors are reinforcing these tailwinds. Markets broadly expect the U. S. Federal Reserve to shift toward a less restrictive stance in the months ahead, which would lower the opportunity cost of holding a risk asset like Bitcoin. Inflation pressures, geopolitical uncertainty, and currency devaluation narratives have been pushing capital toward non-sovereign stores of value — a trend some asset allocators perceive as supportive for digital assets.

Kalshi itself has expanded rapidly. In October 2025, the company announced growth into over 140 countries following a $300 million funding round that values it at $5 billion. This capital boost is intended to improve infrastructure, broaden partnerships, and scale its product stack beyond simple yes/no event contracts. The valuation surge underscores confidence in prediction markets as a means of tapping collective foresight.

Kalshi is currently viewed as a leader in the prediction-market space, outpacing rivals like Polymarket. As of mid-October, Kalshi’s valuation exceeds that of Polymarket by a wide margin, though the latter retains star appeal in crypto circles.

The International Monetary Fund has lifted its projection for the United Arab Emirates’ economic expansion to 4.8 per cent in 2025 and sees 5.0 per cent growth in 2026, citing accelerating non-hydrocarbon activity and a rebound in oil output.

Stronger-than-expected performance in tourism, construction, trade and financial services is underpinning the upward revision. The IMF attributes resilience to the country’s diversified strategy and structural reforms such as enhanced trade agreements and sustained investment in infrastructure.

Analysts say the revision contrasts sharply with broader regional downgrades. The IMF now expects growth across the Middle East and North Africa to expand by only 2.6 per cent in 2025, constrained by policy uncertainty, volatile energy markets and geopolitical tensions.

Within the UAE, central bank data reinforce the narrative of dual expansion. The non-hydrocarbon sector is forecast to grow by around 4.5 per cent annually in both 2025 and 2026, while the hydrocarbon segment is expected to rebound more sharply—by 5.8 per cent in 2025 and 6.5 per cent in 2026—on increased output as OPEC+ quotas are relaxed.

When IMF staff visited the UAE in January 2025, they noted that domestic demand remained robust amid modest oil production, forecasting real GDP growth at about 4 per cent for the year. They projected that fiscal and external surpluses would remain comfortable, helped by elevated non-oil revenues and cautious fiscal management.

Still, risks linger. The UAE’s banking sector, while well capitalised, faces exposure to real estate, and high house prices pose concerns for asset quality. In mid-2025, exposure to property in banks’ portfolios stood at around 18 to 19 per cent of risk-weighted assets. A sudden shift in investor sentiment or capital flows could test the stability of credit markets.

On the external front, the current account surplus is projected at about 7.5 per cent of GDP, supported by stronger non-oil exports and moderating import growth. Liquidity buffers remain healthy, with international reserves covering more than eight months of imports.

European Commission officials are poised to grant approval to Abu Dhabi’s state oil company for its €14.7 billion acquisition of Germany’s Covestro, conditional on minor adjustments to compliance measures, according to sources familiar with the process. The decision could mark one of the most significant Gulf-to-EU corporate takeovers to date.

Brussels opened a detailed investigation into the deal earlier this year under its Foreign Subsidies Regulation, citing concerns that the United Arab Emirates might have leveraged state-backed advantages—such as an unlimited state guarantee and pledged capital injections—to win the bid. The Commission’s probe, initially suspended in September pending additional information, has now resumed as ADNOC submits remedial proposals.

In its revised remedy package, ADNOC has committed to removing language referencing the unlimited guarantee from Covestro’s articles of association and to preserving Covestro’s intellectual property within Europe. Sources suggest the Commission may insist on further tweaks before final clearance, but no major restructuring is expected.

ADNOC’s international investment arm, XRG, has framed the concessions as reflective of its long-term investor stance and asserted confidence that the proposals are “robust and proportionate.” The supreme size of the deal amplifies scrutiny—a deal described by analysts as ADNOC’s largest ever and among the biggest foreign acquisitions of a European company by a Gulf state.

Opponents and industry peers have raised flags about the competitive effects of the transaction. Critics argue that ADNOC’s state backing might have deterred rival bidders, distorting the playing field in Europe’s chemicals sector. Regulators collected feedback from market participants as part of the remedy review, a standard stage in EU merger oversight.

In September, the EU paused its review, citing gaps in the information submitted by the parties. ADNOC responded by accusing the Commission of issuing “disproportionate and invasive” demands. It warned such tactics jeopardised the deal’s viability. Brussels has indicated it will reset its decision deadline after receiving all necessary material. Its previous deadline had been 2 December.

Analysts suggest that the minimal expected adjustments reflect the Commission’s confidence that the core concerns have been addressed. Some believe that failure to clear the deal now would signal strained investment relations between EU institutions and sovereign-backed acquirers. Others caution that even small remedial changes—especially on governance rights or intellectual property handling—could materially alter deal returns.

Covestro, a leader in polymer materials, chemicals, coatings and adhesives, stands to bolster its growth potential under ADNOC’s ownership. The acquisition aligns with ADNOC’s drive to diversify beyond hydrocarbons toward higher-value downstream chemical operations. Yet the deal also pits strategic ambition against regulatory sensitivity—a balancing act now unfolding in the corridors of Brussels.

Commvault has entered a Memorandum of Understanding with HPE to scale joint cybersecurity, backup and recovery services across the Gulf and wider Middle East, unveiling the pact at GITEX Global in Dubai.

The agreement mandates co-development of integrated solutions and joint market initiatives combining HPE’s infrastructure platforms — such as GreenLake, Alletra Storage MP, Zerto, StoreOnce — with Commvault’s cyber-resilience and data protection capabilities. It aims to drive enterprise adoption of hybrid cloud backup, ransomware mitigation and cross-region redundancy.

HPE previously announced a broader strategic expansion of its alliance with Commvault aimed at neutralising advanced cyberthreats, spotlighting tighter integration across cloud, storage and policy automation. The local MoU is intended to bring those capabilities closer to enterprises operating in the Gulf and MENA markets.

HPE’s Zerto platform will feed into Commvault Cloud offerings to enable near-zero recovery time and point objectives, while snapshot immutability, geographic replication, and anomaly detection powered by AI are planned as central joint features. Running side by side, HPE’s storage and infrastructure fabric supports Commvault’s orchestration layer for unified policy enforcement across hybrid deployments.

Regional leadership within both firms emphasised the growing urgency of resilience as data volumes and threat sophistication rise. Yacob Ahli, HPE’s Commercial Director for UAE, said that the Gulf’s data-centric growth narrative demands infrastructure foundations that safeguard continuity. Havier Haddad, heading Commvault’s EMEA emerging markets distribution, framed the MoU as a strategic move to reinforce customer confidence in mission-critical operations across the region.

Analysts say the new alliance helps bridge a gap many enterprises in the Middle East face: lacking in-region partner support for complex, integrated cyber resilience stacks. By localising go-to-market strategies, certification and training, the partnership may reduce friction in adoption. Still, adoption also depends on regulatory compliance, cross-border data governance, and interoperability with incumbent systems.

Commvault has also introduced new additions to its HyperScale portfolio — HyperScale Edge and HyperScale Flex — designed to support remote and edge data protection workloads, broadening its partner ecosystem to include HPE, Dell, Lenovo and others. These tools complement its flagship HyperScale X offering.

Alphabet’s Google will commit $10 billion to develop a 1-gigawatt data centre and artificial intelligence infrastructure in Visakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh, marking its largest investment in India to date, state officials have confirmed. A formal MoU is to be signed today to solidify the partnership.

The data centre campus across three sites — Tarluvada, Adavivaram and Rambilli — will form a hyperscale cluster integrated with AI computing capacity, robust fibre-optic links and dedicated power supply, including renewable energy sources. The initiative is central to Andhra Pradesh’s ambition to scale its data centre capacity to 6 GW over the coming years.

Ahead of the MoU signing, Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu and Union ministers are expected to attend, reinforcing confidence in the project’s strategic significance. IT minister Nara Lokesh described data as “the new oil” underscoring the state’s drive to anchor itself in the global AI infrastructure map.

The Google investment taps into intensifying competition among global cloud and tech firms racing to establish AI infrastructure in India. Over the past months, tech majors have escalated commitments toward data centres, seeking to capitalise on surging demand for cloud and generative AI services.

Development of supportive infrastructure is underway in tandem. The state plans to enhance grid capacity, ensure uninterrupted power, and establish multiple cable landing stations to facilitate connectivity across Asia. The Hyderabad–Vizag corridor is poised to evolve as a subsea cable and data junction.

However, land acquisition hurdles pose a risk. Authorities have earmarked about 200 acres in Tarluvada, but litigation filed by claimants — some reportedly on behalf of proxy or deceased farmers — has slowed progress. The government has increased compensation to approximately ₹50 lakh per acre, and pledged jobs, shop spaces and housing plots to mitigate resistance. Chief Minister Naidu has directed efforts to fast-track resolution and suppress obstruction by alleged benami interests.

Political friction is surfacing. Local legislators from opposition parties accuse rivals of stalling the project to protect illicit land holdings. The TDP’s Palla Srinivasa Rao claimed that the ruling party is attempting to block acquisitions under the guise of safeguarding farmers’ rights, citing instances of forged or ghost claims. The government rejects these accusations and says it will uphold legitimate legal processes while pushing ahead.

Economic projections for the project are ambitious: estimates suggest the cluster could generate over 180,000 direct and indirect jobs between 2028 and 2032 and significantly boost Andhra Pradesh’s gross state domestic product. Analysts see the facility acting as a catalyst for ancillary sectors such as data-fabric supply chains, clean energy, construction and telecom.

This deal follows prior reports that Google had earlier signalled a $6 billion investment in Andhra Pradesh’s data infrastructure; that figure is now superseded by the $10 billion commitment, reflecting the expanded scale and inclusion of AI ambitions. The project’s success will depend on timely approvals, legal clearances, and seamless coordination between state, union and private stakeholders.

Visakhapatnam’s emerging status as a data centre hub is further supported by parallel developments: Sify is launching an AI edge data centre and submarine cable landing station; Meta is participating in undersea cable projects. With Google anchoring a flagship investment, Andhra Pradesh expects to draw further technology firms to its eastern corridor.

Amin H. Nasser, President & CEO of Aramco, told delegates at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London that the company will pursue “energy addition” to cope with intensifying global demand, underlining its steadfast ambition to maintain dominance in oil. He argued that conventional energy sources will remain critical even as the energy transition narrative evolves.

Nasser projected that global oil demand will grow by 1.1–1.3 million barrels per day this year and by 1.2–1.4 million bpd in 2026. He added that Aramco, having kept extraction costs at about $2 per barrel of oil equivalent for oil and $1 for gas, is well-positioned to meet the incremental demand. Speaking to a gathering of energy executives, he said the company can sustain maximum crude output of 12 million bpd for a full year without incurring extra cost.

He stressed that while many promises of the energy transition have fallen short, three shifts are now underway. First, he said the market is conceding that underinvestment in supply has risks. Second, cost pressures on alternative technologies are forcing a reevaluation of pace. Third, energy security is reclaiming a central role in policy-making. “Much of the promised progress has not been delivered, with many unintended consequences. Thankfully, it is finally shifting the narrative in three key ways,” Nasser said.

Behind the rhetoric lies a more cautious reality: Aramco has pared back its previous ambition to reach 13 million bpd, reverting instead to a 12 million bpd sustainable ceiling. That policy shift reportedly followed directives from Saudi energy authorities in early 2024.

In his remarks, Nasser also affirmed Aramco’s push into downstream and petrochemicals. He cited the company’s recent majority acquisition of Petro Rabigh, a 10 percent stake in China’s Rongsheng Petrochemical, and a joint $11 billion ethylene complex with TotalEnergies that is slated to come online by 2027. These moves, he said, diversify revenue streams beyond crude.

His stance echoes his commentary at earlier industry events. At CERAWeek in Houston, Nasser had cast doubt on the viability of green hydrogen and questioned the assumption that renewables alone can displace fossil fuels. He then quipped that there was “more chance of Elvis speaking” than seeing the current transition plans succeed.

Analysts say that Aramco’s optimism hinges on its low-carbon upstream intensity and vast reserves, which give it flexibility against higher-cost producers. The International Energy Agency’s estimates place Saudi spare capacity at about 2.43 million bpd, part of OPEC+’s total idle capacity of around 4.05 million bpd.

Still, external pressures persist. Governments worldwide face competing goals of emissions reduction, energy access, and geopolitical security. In many markets, renewables and storage technologies remain maturing, requiring heavy capital and regulatory support before they can scale. Critics argue that overreliance on fossil fuels could lock in carbon-intensive infrastructure and slow the path to net zero.

At the London forum, however, Nasser signalled that Aramco sees its role as not merely supplying more oil but shaping the discourse. “We are determined to remain dominant in oil thanks to a massive resource base, low costs, and one of the lowest upstream carbon intensities across the industry,” he said. He urged policymakers and financiers to support broad energy investment rather than prematurely dismiss conventional sources.

Emirates NBD is in advanced negotiations to acquire up to a 25 percent stake in Mumbai-based RBL Bank through a preferential allotment of equity and warrants, two people familiar with the matter told Reuters. The proposal would mark a major move by the Dubai-based lender into India’s private banking sector.

The Dubai bank is evaluating the terms of the deal, including pricing and structure, though both parties have yet to confirm the arrangement publicly. One of the sources indicated that the deal may be announced once approvals are in place.

On the Indian equities front, news of the talks propelled RBL’s shares higher: the stock climbed over 3 percent on 14 October, reaching its highest level since January 2024, and became one of the top gainers among private banks. Investor optimism stemmed from expectations that a reputable foreign investor might bolster transparency, governance and capital strength at RBL Bank.

Under Indian banking regulations, strategic foreign investors are generally restricted to a 15 percent stake, although exceptions have been made in high-profile cases. The Reserve Bank of India earlier permitted Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation to hold 20 percent in Yes Bank, setting a precedent for flexibility in exceptional circumstances. Simultaneously, India is exploring adjustments to foreign ownership rules to enhance capital inflows into its banking sector.

Emirates NBD already holds regulatory approval in principle to convert its branches in India into a wholly owned subsidiary, positioning itself to operate on par with domestic Indian banks. That architecture would facilitate compliance with local regulations and provide greater autonomy to its Indian operations.

RBL Bank maintains a dispersed shareholding structure, with retail investors, mutual funds and small institutional holders driving most of its capital. It has no traditional promoter group. In June 2024, the bank had announced plans to raise ₹65 billion through a mix of institutional share issuance and debt instruments to support growth plans.

Previous media reports spanning earlier in 2025 suggested Emirates NBD’s interest in acquiring a minority stake in RBL, via a preferential allotment route, as part of its Asian expansion push. Those earlier discussions laid the groundwork for the current advanced negotiations.

The deal—if consummated—would align with Emirates NBD’s broader strategy of deepening its footprint in India, a market it already serves through branches in Mumbai, Chennai and Gurugram, and via its approved subsidiary structure. The bank has posted robust growth: in the first quarter of 2025, it exceeded profit expectations, buoyed by strong loan expansion and net interest income.

Still, multiple hurdles remain. Key among them are regulatory approvals from the RBI and possibly the finance ministry, clearances from capital markets regulators, and acceptance by RBL Bank’s board. Moreover, the valuation will be closely scrutinised, since acquiring a wedge of 25 percent may require pricing the equity at a premium to prevailing market values.

On the regulator’s side, officials have been deliberating over changes to banking ownership norms to attract foreign capital, particularly in systems where capital demand is rising rapidly. Some observers view case-by-case relaxation of limits as a likely path forward.

Institutional analysts have viewed Emirates NBD’s possible entry as a positive for RBL. One equity research note from ICICI Direct argued that the presence of a well-capitalised global investor could strengthen governance practices and investor confidence.

By Nantoo Banerjee There is little to be excited about the recent inauguration of predominantly mountainous Arunachal Pradesh’s first commercial coal mine at Namchik-Namphuk in the Changlang district jointly by Union Coal & Mines Minister G Kishan Reddy and Arunachal Chief Minister Pema Khandu, marking the state’s first coal mine project. With an officially estimated […]

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