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The decision marks a further escalation in Japan’s energy contingency response at a time when the Strait of Hormuz remains under severe strain despite a two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran. The waterway is one of the world’s most important oil chokepoints, and its disruption has hit Japan especially hard because the country depends on the Middle East for about 95% of its oil imports. Takaichi’s government has been racing to prevent shortages, stabilise prices and reassure refiners, transport operators and households that fuel will continue to flow.

Tokyo had already moved ahead on March 16 with the release of reserves equivalent to 50 days of consumption, combining privately held stocks with state reserves and supplies jointly held with producing nations. That initial step was announced before a formal coordinated action by the International Energy Agency, underscoring the urgency felt by Japanese officials as tanker traffic through Hormuz became severely constrained. The new plan adds another layer of insurance rather than replacing the earlier programme, signalling that authorities believe the market shock may last longer than first expected.

Officials say Japan still has considerable room to act. As of April 7, the country held reserves covering 228 days, including 143 days in the public stockpile. That buffer gives policymakers flexibility, but it also reflects the scale of the threat they see. Refiners have already been forced to adjust operations as crude availability tightens, and the government is attempting to manage not only total supply but also how fuel is distributed across the country. Concerns have centred on keeping essential sectors supplied first, particularly healthcare, transport, agriculture, fisheries and livestock production.

Japan’s strategy goes beyond drawing down reserves. Takaichi said the government expects that by May more than half of oil imports will be secured through routes that do not involve the Strait of Hormuz. That shift is central to Tokyo’s effort to avoid becoming hostage to a single maritime corridor while conflict risk remains elevated. Officials have not identified every supplier publicly, but the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry has indicated that Japan is seeking alternative barrels from a wide range of countries, including Malaysia, Azerbaijan, Brazil, Nigeria and Angola.

The United States is set to play a larger role in that reshaping of supply. A ministry document cited by Reuters said oil imports from the US in May would be four times higher than a year earlier. Japan imported about 189,000 barrels a day from the US in May last year, equal to roughly 8% of total crude purchases for that month. Tokyo is also drawing on Middle East supplies that can bypass Hormuz, including shipments from Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea outlet at Yanbu and from Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates. Those routes do not eliminate vulnerability, but they reduce reliance on the narrow strait at the centre of the crisis.

Domestic politics and inflation pressures are also shaping the response. Takaichi has paired the reserve releases with fuel price measures meant to keep retail gasoline around a nationwide average of ¥170 a litre, even if crude prices remain elevated. Officials have warned that a prolonged supply shock could otherwise push pump prices much higher and strain households as well as businesses already dealing with cost pressures. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama has also flagged the fiscal burden of existing subsidy measures, suggesting that energy security is becoming not only a supply issue but a budgetary one.

The immediate trigger has been the collapse in exports from the Gulf after the outbreak of war in late February and the severe disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Middle Eastern LPG exports fell 73% in March from the previous month to 419,000 barrels per day, according to Kpler data cited by Reuters. The squeeze sent April-loading spot premiums for propane and butane from the Gulf to record highs of $250 a tonne over March Saudi contract price swaps, while Saudi Aramco lifted its April official selling price for propane by $205 a tonne to $750 and for butane by $260 a tonne to $800.

That shock is now reshaping trade flows. Preliminary Kpler data show U. S. LPG exports are expected to rise to a record 2.7 million barrels per day in April, with about 1.8 million barrels per day heading to Asia, up 14% from March. Traders say cargoes are also being drawn from Canada, Norway, Argentina and Australia, but the United States has emerged as the principal swing supplier because of its sheer export scale. Marex’s Vasudev Balagopal told Reuters that major importers were actively diversifying beyond the Gulf, although brokers caution that U. S. export terminals were already running close to capacity before the conflict and cannot fully replace Middle East barrels on their own.

The substitution is costly and slow. U. S. Gulf terminal fees for propane and butane hit record levels in March, and cargoes from the Gulf Coast to Asia typically take more than 30 days to arrive, compared with roughly two weeks from the Middle East. Even where a ceasefire has allowed some movement through Hormuz, traders are treating the route as fragile and unpredictable. Reuters reported on April 11 that some tankers had begun exiting the Gulf after a truce, but hundreds of vessels remained stranded or delayed, underlining how quickly physical dislocation can outlast any diplomatic pause.

India’s position illustrates the strain most clearly. The country consumed 33.15 million metric tonnes of LPG last year, with imports covering about 60% of demand and roughly 90% of those imports sourced from the Middle East. State-backed retailers have kept prices for 14.2-kg domestic cylinders unchanged to protect households, even as commercial LPG prices were raised in April and the government diverted supplies away from industry to shield cooking-gas consumers. Reuters also reported that India increased domestic daily LPG output by 40% to 50,000 tonnes and secured 800,000 tonnes of replacement cargoes from the United States, Russia, Australia and elsewhere.

Officials in New Delhi are also using the shortage to accelerate a structural shift towards piped gas. Emergency powers have been invoked to direct limited LPG toward households, while expansion of city gas networks has been fast-tracked. India added 580,000 new household piped-gas connections in March, up sharply from a year earlier, and credit-rating agency ICRA estimates the policy push could cut LPG imports by 10% to 15% by 2030. The fiscal logic is clear: household LPG is sold at deeply subsidised rates, while piped gas is priced closer to the market, easing pressure on public finances as well as on import dependence.

China faces a different kind of pressure. There, LPG is not only a cooking fuel but also a crucial petrochemical feedstock. Rystad Energy estimates regional steam crackers lost about 135,000 barrels per day of LPG demand in March from February levels, with further declines expected in April and May. In China, propane dehydrogenation plants, already running at only 60% to 65% because of weak margins before the conflict, are expected to cut operating rates again as feedstock shortages bite. That matters beyond the energy sector because PDH plants make propylene, a building block for plastics and a wide range of manufactured goods.

China has authorised state oil refiners to draw on commercial crude reserves as the Middle East war enters its sixth week, a move that points to mounting concern in Beijing over supply security, refinery operations and fuel stability in the world’s biggest crude importer. The decision marks a notable shift after reporting in March indicated that access to such reserves had been denied, underscoring how sharply the market backdrop has changed.

The policy adjustment comes as the conflict centred on Iran has disrupted flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a route that handled about 20 million barrels a day of crude and oil products in 2025 and remains one of the most critical chokepoints in global energy trade. The International Energy Agency said in March that the war had created the biggest supply disruption in oil market history, with flows through Hormuz falling from around 20 million barrels a day before the war to only a trickle.

For China, the timing is especially sensitive. State refiners have already been grappling with higher feedstock costs, disrupted shipping routes and a scramble for replacement barrels from outside the Gulf. Reuters reported in late March that Sinopec, the country’s largest refiner by capacity, had sought access to state reserves after deciding against buying Iranian crude, while also trimming refinery runs. Earlier reporting in mid-March said China had been building inventories rather than drawing them down, suggesting Beijing initially preferred to preserve stocks.

That stance now appears to have softened. Bloomberg reported on April 10 that authorities had given state refiners the green light to tap commercial reserves. While the precise volume and duration were not publicly disclosed, the move is significant because it signals Beijing is willing to use part of the country’s stock cushion to smooth supplies for domestic processing rather than rely solely on the spot market at a time of exceptional volatility.

The wider market has been under intense pressure even as talk of a ceasefire has briefly cooled futures prices. Reuters reported that physical crude markets in Europe and Africa remained extremely tight despite a temporary truce, with buyers in Asia and Europe competing aggressively for non-Middle East barrels. Another Reuters report said U. S. crude premiums had surged to record highs as importers sought alternatives to Gulf supplies. That matters for China because replacing lost or delayed Middle East cargoes has become more expensive just as refining margins in parts of Asia remain fragile.

Supply conditions deteriorated further this week after attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure cut output capacity by around 600,000 barrels a day and reduced throughput on the East-West Pipeline by about 700,000 barrels a day, according to Saudi state media cited by Reuters. The pipeline is vital because it allows exports to bypass Hormuz via the Red Sea. Damage there narrowed one of the few remaining alternative routes for Gulf producers trying to keep oil moving to Asian customers.

Asian refiners have already felt the strain. Reuters reported that seaborne crude imports into Asia in April were estimated at 19.22 million barrels a day, sharply below the three-month average of 25 million barrels a day. Although refined fuel prices eased after hopes of a truce, the same report said the market was still stressed and that it could take months for normality to return even if shipping improves. For Beijing, releasing commercial stocks is therefore less a dramatic emergency measure than a tactical effort to bridge a period of dislocation.

The decision also reflects China’s domestic balancing act. Authorities have been trying to keep fuel output steady even as weak underlying demand and higher crude costs squeeze refiners. Reuters reported on April 2 that officials had pressed independent refiners to maintain production despite the surge in oil prices and wartime disruption. That suggests Beijing is seeking to avoid sharp swings in fuel availability or industrial costs while preserving broader economic stability.

There is also a geopolitical layer. China has opposed any overtly force-based international response around Hormuz and has pushed for de-escalation at the United Nations, according to Reuters reporting on Security Council negotiations. At the same time, the reserve release shows that Beijing is preparing for a conflict that may not be resolved quickly and for shipping conditions that may remain uncertain even if diplomatic language softens.