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The World Bank has trimmed its projection for South Asia’s economic expansion in 2026, citing elevated U. S. tariffs on Indian exports as a key drag. The region’s growth is now forecast at 5.8 percent, down from 6.6 percent this year.

The updated “South Asia Development Update” flags the U. S. trade measures as a major headwind, especially given India’s size and its integration into regional supply chains. The report sets India’s growth for fiscal year 2025–26 at 6.5 percent, up from its earlier estimate of 6.3 percent, but warns of a drop to 6.3 percent in 2026–27 as tariff pressures intensify.

The U. S. has imposed tariffs of up to 50 percent on a broad swath of Indian goods—impacting sectors such as textiles, gems and jewellery and seafood—affecting nearly $50 billion in exports. These are among the highest duties levied on any U. S. trading partner. The World Bank notes that these tariffs will particularly bite in 2026 as initial buffers from public spending fade.

Franziska Ohnsorge, chief economist for South Asia at the World Bank, asserted that the toll from trade restrictions reflects “a reversal of the gains” India had made in integrating into global value chains. She urged structural adjustments: lowering tariffs and signing free trade agreements to support export competitiveness.

Beyond India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka show varying trajectories. The Bank upgrades forecasts for Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, citing easing fiscal strain and improving external balances. Meanwhile, Nepal and the Maldives bear the brunt of tighter global conditions, with their outlooks revised downward.

Policy responses in India are already in motion. The government launched sweeping tax cuts spanning consumer goods to automobiles, one of the largest fiscal interventions in recent years. Concurrently, infrastructure spending is being boosted to drive domestic demand and counterbalance export headwinds. The Reserve Bank of India held its repo rate at 5.50 percent in October, citing subdued inflation and leaving open room for a future cut.

Indian officials remain confident. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman called the economy “resilient,” expressing faith it could absorb external shocks while targeting an ambitious 8 percent growth. The Chief Economic Adviser affirmed earlier forecasts of 6.3–6.8 percent GDP growth, downplaying long-term damage from trade friction.

International institutions have also flagged downside risks. The Asian Development Bank cut India’s FY 26 forecast to 6.5 percent from 6.7 percent, pointing to duty pressures and policy uncertainty. The IMF earlier trimmed India’s 2025-26 prediction to 6.2 percent, citing heightened global trade tensions.

The World Bank’s report emphasises that over the medium term, trade liberalisation combined with labour flexibility and investment in digital infrastructure could help South Asia reclaim momentum. Within the document, a scenario of tariff cuts and deeper trade integration is modelled to yield significant gains in productivity, employment, and output per capita.

Still, the path ahead is fraught. The report cautions that the region is vulnerable to a global slowdown, geopolitical shocks and labor market disruptions from artificial intelligence. In particular, it warns that weaker export growth from India will spill over across the region via trade, financial and migrant-worker channels.

Goldman Sachs has launched a new office in Kuwait, asserting a significant push to enhance its reach across the Middle East and deepen its ties with Gulf-region clients under fresh leadership.

The New York-based investment bank said its role over five decades in Kuwait spans investment banking, capital markets and asset management. As part of its latest expansion, Goldman has tapped Mohammad Almatrouk as managing director of the Kuwait office, pending regulatory green light, while Fahad Alebrahim has been appointed managing director of the firm’s private wealth business in Kuwait.

David Solomon, Goldman Sachs’s Chairman and Chief Executive, framed the move as a commitment to “grow our capabilities across the Middle East and better serve our clients,” emphasising Kuwait’s economic vision as a catalyst for the firm’s expansion.

Goldman Sachs points to a long-standing capacity-building partnership in Kuwait that includes a professional training scheme designed to nurture talent at institutions such as the Kuwait Investment Authority, the Public Institution for Social Security and the Kuwait Fund. That programme, the bank says, will continue to play a central role in integrating local human capital into its global operations.

The choice of Kuwait underscores a growing focus on the Gulf’s institutional capital. Kuwait, host to one of the world’s largest sovereign wealth funds, has attracted global financial firms looking to align with its diversification and investment ambitions. Goldman Sachs’s decision follows earlier regional expansions, such as establishing a presence in Abu Dhabi and securing a banking licence in Saudi Arabia.

Kuwait’s Director General of the Direct Investment Promotion Authority, Sheikh Dr. Meshaal Jaber Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah, praised the move as aligned with Kuwait’s economic diversification and global integration goals. He stressed that opening the office supports national priorities including talent development and sustainable growth.

Regional analysts view Goldman’s Kuwait office as part of a broader recalibration by global banks to embed themselves closer to Gulf capital sources. Over the past two years, deal activity in sovereign and quasi-sovereign asset structures has exploded, prompting major firms including Lazard, JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank to expand in the Gulf with new leadership hires.

Inside Goldman Sachs, the timeline coincides with a leadership transition: the firm’s co-head for the Middle East and North Africa, Fadi Abuali, is slated to retire after nearly 28 years of service. His departure is expected to reshape the firm’s regional hierarchy just as Kuwait becomes a new hub.

Some observers caution the move carries execution challenges. Regulatory approvals in Kuwait must be secured, and Goldman must integrate the new office into its broader Gulf operations without duplicating functions. Success will depend on maintaining local relationships while delivering global platform advantages.

Goldman Sachs Bank Europe Se-ODI has sold 8.1 crore shares in Eternal Limited, parent company of Zomato, in a block transaction worth about ₹266.1 crore, marking its fourth offloading in a month.

The shares were priced at ₹328.45 each, roughly 2 per cent below the stock’s prior closing. The buyer was BofA Securities Europe SA, which absorbed the entire block.

Earlier in October, Goldman Sachs sold 8.2 crore shares to Morgan Stanley for ~₹266.9 crore, and executed a ₹355.3-crore deal—offloading 1.08 crore shares at ₹329 apiece—to BofA. Prior to that, it disposed of 9.52 lakh shares in September for ₹31.6 crore. From these four block transactions, the firm has realised over ₹900 crore.

The continuous divestment follows a rally in Eternal’s share price. Over the past three months, the stock surged by approximately 26 per cent, reaching a high of ₹343.95 in late September, and has clocked an 18 per cent gain year to date.

Despite the strong top-line momentum, Eternal’s profitability has come under significant strain. In the first quarter of fiscal year 2025–26, consolidated net profit plunged over 90 per cent to ₹25 crore, while operating revenue rose 70 per cent to ₹7,167 crore.

Goldman Sachs’ repeated stake reductions evoke questions over motive, especially as its own brokerage arm continues to maintain a bullish stance. In September, it reaffirmed a “Buy” rating on Eternal and raised the price target to ₹360 from ₹340, citing the growth potential of its quick-commerce vertical Blinkit.

The buyer, BofA Securities, could be positioning itself on expectations of long-term value, absorbing these large blocks. The handling of these blocks at slight discounts suggests a balance between exit urgency and price discipline.

Analysts are watching closely for further block deals from Goldman Sachs, and whether these are timed to capitalise on current valuations or signal a recalibration of confidence. The broader investor community may interpret the continuous divestment, despite favourable stock momentum, as a nuanced signal regarding risk, liquidity or internal reshuffling.

Organisers have confirmed that Future Blockchain Summit x Fintech Surge will take place at Dubai Harbour from 12 to 15 October 2025, positioning the event as a central nexus for blockchain, digital assets, and fintech innovation across the MENA region. The four-day gathering, held alongside Expand North Star and powered by GITEX GLOBAL, aims to attract regulators, investors, entrepreneurs and technologists to shape emerging frameworks for finance.

Attendance is expected to exceed 70,000, with over 1,200 investors and more than 225 speakers scheduled to participate, alongside 150 exhibitors showcasing new products and solutions. A feature highlight is the Digital Assets Forum, which brings regulators, banks, and innovators together for intensive discussions on topics such as CBDCs, stablecoins, tokenised capital markets, cross-border regulation and the role of AI in compliance.

Speakers confirmed include Jimmy Su, Lily Liu, Eric Piscini, Oliver Stauber, Helen Liu and Kevin Lee. The event also features the Supernova Challenge, a startup pitch competition offering equity-free prizes totalling US$214,000 to finalists presenting to global judges and investors. Corporations such as Ruya, OKX and DKK Partners anchor the sponsorship tiers, while YPAY backs the Digital Assets Forum.

Dubai has been steadily reinforcing its position in the digital asset ecosystem. Earlier this year, the DAMAC Group signed a $1 billion contract with blockchain platform MANTRA to tokenise its real-world assets, a move aligned with the UAE’s aspirations to become a global digital assets hub. The country has been actively implementing regulatory frameworks, particularly in free zones like ADGM and DMCC, to attract blockchain firms and promote tokenisation of assets.

Investment momentum in the broader crypto and fintech sphere in the UAE has been robust. In the first quarter of 2025, global venture capital funding into cryptotech startups reached $5.4 billion, its highest quarterly total since 2022. Dubai has hosted major conferences such as TOKEN2049, drawing tens of thousands of participants and signalling regional leadership, though industry sentiment currently balances optimism with caution amid regulatory uncertainty and macro-economic pressures.

Technology trends driving this year’s agenda include the convergence of AI and blockchain, regulatory clarity for digital assets, tokenised infrastructure, and embedded finance. A newly published academic framework proposes integrating blockchain with Zero Trust security models to improve protection against insider threats in fintech ecosystems — a demonstration of how research is intersecting with commercial deployment.

Organisers emphasise that the event’s format is more than a conference: it is designed to enable deal-making, pilot launches and real partnerships. One-to-one investor matchmaking, live product demonstrations, and structured labs are scheduled to convert ideas into actionable projects. Startups exhibiting at Expand North Star receive automatic inclusion in the Supernova Challenge, deepening integration between the startup and blockchain-fintech community.

Regulators from the MENA region and beyond are expected to engage at the forum. Discussions will centre on harmonising cross-border rules, interoperability of digital asset legislation, and pathways for institutional adoption of tokenised assets. Several central banks may share updates on central bank digital currency explorations.